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High growth in manufacturing, financing, insurance and real estate
Household sector saving stands decreased to 23.5 per cent
NEW DELHI: India's GDP (gross domestic product) growth stands revised upwards to 8 per cent for 2009-10 from the 7.4 per cent expansion estimated earlier for the fiscal, mainly on the strength of better showing by sectors such as manufacturing and services.
According to the ‘Quick estimates of national income, consumption expenditure, saving and capital formation for 2009-10' released by the Central Statistical Organisation here on Monday, the higher GDP growth rate during 2009-10 “has been achieved due to high growth in manufacturing (8.8 per cent), financing, insurance, real estate as well as business services (9.2 per cent), transport, storage and communication (15 per cent), community, social and personal services (11.8 per cent).”
At factor cost
The country's GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in 2009-10 is estimated at Rs.44.94 lakh crore as against Rs.41.63 lakh crore in 2008-09, which works out to an overall economic growth of 8 per cent during the year. At current prices, however, it is estimated much higher at Rs.61.33 lakh crore as against Rs.52.82 lakh crore in 2008-09 to show an increase of 16.1 per cent for the year.
Although the higher GDP growth in 2009-10 signals a faster economic recovery from the slowdown in the wake of the global financial crisis, it also goes on to provide an adverse statistical impact by way of a high base effect to pull down the anticipated growth during the current fiscal (2010-11) to the lower end of the 8.5-9.0 per cent range.
The CSO data showed that the per capita income (per capita net national income at factor cost) in real terms (at 2004-05 prices), is estimated at Rs.33,731 for 2009-10 as against Rs.31,801 in 2008-09 to mark an increase of 6.1 per cent during the year, the CSO data showed.
At current prices, however, it is estimated at Rs.46,492 during the year as against Rs.40,605 for the previous year to post a growth of 14.5 per cent.
Gross domestic saving
Likewise, gross domestic saving (GDS) at current prices in 2009-10 is estimated at Rs.22.07 lakh crore as against Rs.17.98 lakh crore in 2008-09, constituting 33.7 per cent of GDP at market prices as against 32.2 per cent in the previous year. “The increase in the rate of GDS has mainly been due to the increase in the rates of savings of public sector from 0.5 per cent in 2008-09 to 2.1 per cent in 2009-10 and private corporate sector from 7.9 per cent in 2008-09 to 8.1 per cent in 2009-10,” it said.
However, in respect of the household sector, the rate of saving stands decreased from 23.8 per cent to 23.5 per cent. In absolute terms, the saving of the household sector has increased from Rs.13.31 lakh crore in 2008-09 to Rs.15.36 lakh crore in 2009-10.
“We had projected the GDP growth rate for the current fiscal at 8.5-8.7 per cent. With the upward revision in the 2009-10 GDP numbers, we expect the GDP of 2010-11 to be in the lower end of the range,” ICRA Economist Aditi Nayar said.
The economy is projected to grow at 9 per cent in the current fiscal. It grew at 8.9 per cent in the first half of the current financial year which ends in March.
In addition, the GDP growth estimate for 2008-09 has been revised marginally upward to 6.8 per cent from the previous estimate of 6.7 per cent.
The 8 per cent growth clearly shows that stimulus provided by the government through excise duty and service tax cuts has yielded results.
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