An incisive account of the complex dynamics in contemporary Uttar Pradesh politics
POLITICAL PROCESS IN UTTAR PRADESH — Identity, Economic Reforms and Governance: Sudha Pai — Editor; Pearson/Longman, 482, FIE, Patparganj, Delhi-110092. Rs. 750.
In India the practitioners (politicians) as also the daily chroniclers (journalists) of political exchanges tend to be dismissive of the scholar's capacity to help understand, and if possible, predict developments. Political Process in Uttar Pradesh is the scholar's answer to this cultivated disdain. In fact, the political community and the journalistic fraternity would have saved themselves considerable professional embarrassment if only some of them had read the book carefully before preparing for the just concluded Assembly elections.
BSP's strategy
For instance, on page 265 is available BSP president, Mayawati's electoral calculus nearly two years before her famous victory in May 2007: "The upper castes will not cast their votes in favour of [the] Bahujan candidate. But Bahujan caste voters should transfer their votes totally in favour of the upper-caste candidates in every constituency where they are contesting on [the] BSP ticket, though in such constituencies the upper castes will not vote en masse for the upper caste candidate contesting on the BSP ticket. But in the process, even if [the] upper-caste BSP candidate get 2 to 3 per cent of the upper caste votes, the BSP as a party can enhance its tally from the present by 50 to 60 seats. This will give the BSP a chance to form a majority government for the full five-year term in the state." This almost prophetic statement is detailed and analysed by Vivek Kumar in the chapter on "Bahujan Samaj Party: some issues of democracy and governance". Chapters by Kumar, Sudha Pai and A.KVerma constitute the brilliant core of the book, dealing with the nature of political transformation in U.P. since the early 1990s. They draw attention to the nuances and mechanics of how the BSP leadership went about honing its strategy of expanding beyond the Dalit base.
The question, however, remains as to why Ms.Mayawati succeeded so spectacularly in May 2007 while her earlier similar electoral essays remained unrewarded. Part of the answer is available in Sudha Pai's article, "From Dalit to Savarna: The BSP in Uttar Pradesh". Dissecting the by-elections in June 2005, Pai writes: "The BJP vote share nearly halved in only three years. The result is that what was a genuinely three-cornered fight between the BJP, the BSP and the SP in the 2002 Assembly elections has undergone a radical change."
Decline of BJP
And the nature of the BJP's decline and the reasons for it are competently delineated by Abhay Kumar Dubey and Smita Gupta. At the centre of the BJP's decline is the Brahmin community's disenchantment. Once the Brahmins of Uttar Pradesh realised, as Sudha Pai points out, that the BJP was a "marginalised force", they were eager to move away from the party and became susceptible to Mayawati's allurements. But when and why did the Brahmins come to the conclusion that the BJP had become a marginalised force? Could it be that the departure of Atal Bihari Vajpayee from the seat of power in New Delhi was the final straw that brought about the realisation that it was time for the community to shop around?
Three essays in the first part give an exhaustive overview of the Congress' style of politics and the factors that led ot the party's declilne; the third part reminds the reader how "bad politics" has affected the economic development of the State, especially in the reforms era. And these contextual constraints will not disappear overnight just because Ms.Mayawati has managed to secure an electoral majority.
This book enhances considerably our understanding of the autonomous role the political agents (parties and leaders) can play in inducing social changes. By devising electoral strategies that hinge on construction and reconstruction of identities (of caste, religion, and community), political parties have forced changes in the traditional social structures.
Political stability
Is U.P. ready for the next stage of development of political moderation and governmental stability? The book argues that "caste-based mobilisation" has reached a "plateau" and has opened up the "possibility of a more politically stable system based on more normative and secular politics." For over two decades now U.P. has seen a long experiment in a kind of political fragmentation that thrived on a stalemate in the governing structure. Democratic churning and mobilisation did succeed in overthrowing the traditional upper caste/upper class-led social alliance; but the political class has not been able to devise the imagination and habits to cobble together another social alliance that would underwrite a reasonable degree of stability in the governmental arrangement.
Whether or not Ms.Mayawati will be able to sustain the new Dalit-led social alliance, her recent victory has raised the question "whether the country should be an elitist or broad-based democracy, with adequate representation of the underprivileged and with a pattern of development in which the benefits are shared by all sections." And, as Sudha Pai asserts, the recent developments will be felt beyond Uttar Pradesh.
Printer friendly
page Send this article to Friends by
E-Mail
