The Hindu : State by State : Assam: vote splitting helped Congress win

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Thursday, May 20, 2004

State by State

State by State

Assam: vote splitting helped Congress win

CSDS team with Sandhya Goswami

The 2004 electoral verdict in the North Eastern states presents a mixed picture. The Congress retained its position in Assam, though its tally slipped by one.

On the other hand, it was the BJP itself and its allies, which made gains in the other North Eastern states, while the CPI (M) easily retained its traditional stronghold of Tripura.

In Assam, the Congress won nine seats, followed by the BJP and the AGP with two each. The BJP repeated its tally of 1999, while the AGP recovered from its 1999 debacle when it won no seats.

An Independent candidate, supported by the BJP, won the Kokrajhar seat. The AGP too had not fielded a candidate in this Lok Sabha constituency.

The Congress' victory was mainly due to a divided opposition, which led to triangular contests, since it won a majority of the seats with only 35 per cent of the votes. The party's victory was not without its share of defeats.

The AGP snatched the Dibrugarh seat from the Congress by defeating Paban Singh Ghatowar, the State party president. Tea garden labourers dominate this constituency, a traditional support base of the party and the Congress has never lost this seat since the first general elections in 1952.

On the other hand, the Congress won the Autonomous District constituency defeating long time MP Dr. Jayanta Rongpi.

But probably the most spectacular victory for the Congress was its success in defeating Dr. Bhupen Hazarika, the BJP candidate and a popular icon in the State.

But the Congress' evident victory has an underlying story — it is that of an erosion of its social base, an AGP on the road to revival and a BJP which seems to be getting nowhere in terms of seats. But first, the performance of the opposition. The AGP had been routed in the previous Lok Sabha election.

It won no seat then and secured 13 per cent votes. In 2004, it has increased its vote share to 20 per cent. The revival of the AGP may be credited to the change in leadership and the return of dissident leaders to its fold. The BJP had been hoping for a significant breakthrough in Assam in the Lok Sabha elections. It did increase its vote share significantly from 25 per cent in 1999 to 30 percent, along with its allies the JD (U) and one independent to win three seats.

But what is more worrying for the Congress is the erosion of its support base amongst its traditional supporters, the Dalits and the tribals. The Muslims, who officially constitute 28 per cent of the State's population, are the only community to overwhelmingly back the Congress. About 66 per cent of the Muslims in Assam support the Congress.

Among all other communities, it is the BJP that leads the Congress. The Congress' situation among the Hindu upper castes is even worse. It comes in third after the AGP. But then this is not much of a surprise since the Hindu upper castes had long been alienated from the Congress. Among the OBCs, the BJP leads, while the Congress and the AGP are almost evenly matched.

Among the Dalits and the tribals, the BJP secured 42 per cent and 40 per cent of the votes respectively, mainly due to its allies. Only 21 per cent of the Dalits and 25 per cent of the tribals, on the other hand support the Congress.

This state of affairs should certainly worry the Congress as it faces the State assembly elections in another two years. It should also be concerned about the possibility of an AGP-BJP alliance in the Assembly elections, which might pose a tough challenge, though the same alliance had failed in the 2001 Assembly elections.

The Congress can perhaps take consolation from the fact that about 60 per cent of the voters are satisfied with the performance of the State government.

If the BJP did not make any spectacular breakthrough in Assam, it managed to establish a presence in the other North Eastern states. Out of the 10 seats for which results are available, the BJP and its allies won six seats, the Congress and the CPI (M) two seats. The BJP won both the seats in Arunachal Pradesh; the break-up for its allies is as follows — the Trinamool Congress won one seat in Meghalaya, the Mizo National Front one in Mizoram, the Naga People's Front one in Nagaland and the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) one in Sikkim. The Congress won one seat each in Meghalaya and Manipur.

The success of the BJP in this region has nothing to do with its ideology or organisational strength. This is mainly due to its ability to attract regional players into the NDA's fold, which may be eroded after the loss of power at the Centre.

In this whole excitement about the national elections, it was not noticed that Sikkim too had Assembly elections.

The SDF swept the polls thrashing the Congress, recently strengthened by the entry of the former Chief Minister and Sikkim Sangram Parishad leader, Nar Bahadur Bhandari. The SDF won 31 out of the 32 seats, of which four were uncontested. The Congress managed to win only one seat, in this lopsided contest.

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