CAMBRIDGE LETTER
Another season of party conferences
BY BILL KIRKMAN
Leadership issues will feature prominently in this year's political conferences.
ONCE again the political party conference season approaches, and this year the signs are that they may capture the interest and attention of the detached observer. (Cynics, of course, will say that the idea of an interesting party conference is an oxymoron, but I believe that on this occasion the cynics will be wrong.)
Key factor
There are several factors which must be taken into account. One is the issue of leadership. Since the last set of conferences the two major opposition parties, the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, have chosen new leaders. How they perform at their respective conferences will be closely watched, by supporters and opponents alike. For the Labour party, the leadership question is quite different: what clues will Tony Blair give about the timing of his departure? His performance will also be closely watched, but he will be painfully aware that many of the watchers from within his party have lost confidence in him.
Recent opinion polls make extremely uncomfortable reading for the government. The latest Guardian/ICM poll, for example, shows support for Labour at 31 per cent, compared with 40 per cent for the Conservatives.
An accurate reflection
Opinion polls, of course, are snapshots, and it is what happens in an election, not what happens in an opinion poll, that really matters. As they whistle to keep their spirits up, the government will doubtless try to take comfort from that, but the fact is that the opinion polls are not the real problem, but a reflection of it.
The real problem is that public confidence in Tony Blair's leadership, and his judgments, has been falling for months. He clearly believes that he has unfinished business to carry out which will address the concerns of the electorate, but for many, that belief is delusion. It is what he has done, rather than what he plans to do, that has led to the lack of trust — and above all, what he has done in foreign policy. In the ICM poll, for example, some 72 per cent felt that the U.K. had become more of a target for terrorism as a result of the Blair foreign policy.
One dramatic illustration of the strength of feeling came a few days ago when 37 members of the Labour Party in the constituency of Margaret Beckett, the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs, defected and joined the Liberal Democrats. The defectors included former local councillors. Many are Muslims opposed to the government's policy in West Asia.
Meanwhile, David Cameron, the Conservative party leader, has been busily re-positioning the party, and giving it a more liberal (with a small "l") flavour. For example, he has just been visiting South Africa and wrote an article in The Observer, the Sunday newspaper, praising the contribution of Nelson Mandela and, most significantly, stating that Margaret Thatcher's policies towards Mandela's African National Congress, and the then apartheid regime, were wrong. "The mistakes my party made in the past with respect to relations with the ANC and sanctions on South Africa make it all the more important to listen now." It is a belated recognition of a real world to which Margaret Thatcher was disgracefully blind. Cameron's stance will not find favour with all the traditional Conservative old guard — but it may win over some floating voters, and indeed some traditional Labour voters who are floating away from their party.
Death wish
The Liberal Democrats frequently demonstrate a kind of death wish in their attitude to their leader, and since his election to succeed Charles Kennedy, Sir Menzies ("Ming") Campbell has been much criticised for perceived lack of charisma. One of his great strengths, however, is in foreign policy, where he has both experience and gravitas, and if he plays his cards well he should certainly be able to benefit from Tony Blair's vulnerability.
In general, analysing the whole "who's up and who's down" business as the parties meet is an acquired taste, and one which many have no wish to acquire. My reason for suggesting that this year things may be different is that there is deep public concern about many aspects of policy under Tony Blair's leadership. It is not necessary to look at the results of opinions polls to appreciate this. Nor is it simply an impression gained in the metropolitan political hothouse — the gossip from the "Westminster village".
To the contrary, the concern is clearly apparent in daily conversations with ordinary people, who, whatever their instinctive political leanings, are well able to assess how the democratic process is working.
Bill Kirkman is an Emeritus Fellow of Wolfson College Cambridge, U.K. Email him at: bill.kirkman@gmail.com
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