CAMBRIDGE LETTER
Chance for peace
BY BILL KIRKMAN
With the dismantling of all its military structures by IRA, the way is open for a final peace settlement in Northern Ireland.
PHOTO: AP
Hope ahead: Lord Alderdice, former Northern Ireland Assembly speaker, with the twelfth Independent Monitoring Commission report.
IN the political life of the United Kingdom, the future of Northern Ireland has been a long-running and often bitter saga. In the past few days, the Independent Monitoring Commission, established to monitor the disarming of the IRA (Irish Republican Army), has reported positively. The Commission has confirmed that the IRA has dismantled its military structures and is honouring its commitment to cease all illegal activity.
The Chief Constable of Northern Ireland, Sir Hugh Orde, has said he broadly supports the Commission's report. Tony Blair, the British Prime Minister, has declared that the IRA's military campaign is over, and that the way is open for a final peace settlement in Northern Ireland.
All this forms the background to talks which are to take place in Scotland between all the parties involved in Northern Ireland. Tony Blair has left no one in doubt about the importance of the talks, which will, he has said, provide a unique opportunity. "I hope all the parties seize that opportunity to create a future for the people of Northern Ireland, based on shared democratic values."
By the time this Letter appears, if the talks in Scotland go well, the way will be clear for the ending of the suspension of Stormont, the Northern Ireland parliament, and the return to devolved government. The local politicians are under pressure, because the British government has stated that if agreement is not reached by November 24, the salaries and allowances of the elected Northern Ireland politicians — the local MPs — will stop.
Deep distrust
The essence of the Northern Ireland problem is a deep and long-running distrust between Catholics and Protestants, and their political manifestations. It blew up into a crisis in the 1970s, and there followed 30 years of murder and mayhem.
In April 1998, after patient efforts by the political leaders of the U.K. and the Irish Republic, agreement was reached for a settlement — the so-called Good Friday agreement. At the time, I wrote in this newspaper that turning the agreement into reality would require the votes, and support, and continuing will and commitment, of people who had lived for 30 years in fear and hatred of each other. I noted: "It is a settlement, opening the possibility of a solution: it is not itself the solution".
Events have shown that such caution was justified. Collaboration, in a short-lived Northern Ireland Executive, proved fragile, and in October 2002 the British government suspended the assembly. Rational discussion, and even the appearance of civility, between Dr. Ian Paisley, leader of the (Protestant) Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), and Sinn Fein, the (Catholic) nationalist party, led by Gerry Adams, often seemed unattainable.
Years of pressure, and peace-making, by the British and Irish governments have been necessary to achieve what, at last, seems a genuinely hopeful scenario. Major difficulties remain, including the crucial question of Sinn Fein's willingness to recognise the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI).
Most people in the rest of the U.K. have little understanding of the complex political background of Northern Ireland, and, frankly, little patience with the NI politicians. That is understandable, but until a settlement is achieved which enables Northern Ireland to build a viable political structure, both British and Republic of Ireland governments will face a continuing massive problem.
The omens seem better than they have been for many years. The Belfast Telegraph, Northern Ireland's major newspaper, notes that the Monitoring Commission's report shows that "the IRA has dismantled its military structures and not only accepts the need for policing but wants to get involved in it". The paper comments that there may come a time soon when "the DUP will have to make a leap of faith and accept Sinn Fein as a suitable partner in a power-sharing executive". The mainly Catholic Irish News remarks in an editorial that the spotlight is now on the DUP's Ian Paisley, adding, significantly, that if Sinn Fein "can take the long-overdue decision on policing, it must be the case that the only outstanding issue is when, and not if, the DUP will share power with the party".
Positive signs
Meanwhile, Gerry Adams has spoken positively about outreach from Unionists. Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern, the Republic of Ireland Prime Minister, are having talks with the politicians. President Bush's adviser on Northern Ireland, Ambassador Mitchell Reiss, has made a statement urging Northern Ireland's political leaders "to seize this important opportunity to reach a lasting political settlement".
It may be that by the time you read this a meaningful settlement really will have been achieved.
Bill Kirkman is an Emeritus Fellow of Wolfson College Cambridge, UK. Email him at: bill.kirkman@gmail.com
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