CAMBRIDGE LETTER
A country in crisis
BILL KIRKMAN
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As Zimbabwe slides deeper into chaos, the official inflation is at 4,500 per cent, and there is an urgent need for the Commonwealth to intervene.
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Photo: Reuters
Collapsing economy: Empty shelves in a supermarket in Harare.
What should be done about Zimbabwe? The question becomes more urgent by the day as the country slides ever deeper into chaos. Its economy has collapsed, and inflation is officially running at 4,500 per cent — the highest rate in the world ̵
2; though the estimate of independent financial institutions is that it is actually closer to 9,000 per cent.
The people are starving. They are subject to violence and oppression at the hands of Robert Mugabe’s government.
No rule of law
For all practical purposes, that government is a terrorist regime. Few citizens are able to express their opposition. One of those who has done is the Roman Catholic Archbishop of Bulawayo, Pius Ncube, who has appealed to Britain or any “strong” power to come to his country’s aid. The plea is poignant, and understandable, but it has to be recognised that any intervention initiated by the U.K., as the former colonial power, would be likely to make matters worse.
There is clearly a major humanitarian problem. There is also, however, a major political problem — for the U.K., as indicated, but also for Zimbabwe’s neighbours, and notably South Africa. At the most basic level, the influx of refugees from Zimbabwe is putting a strain on South Africa’s economy. The problem, however, is far wider than that. The situation is a serious challenge to the African Union, whose leaders are under pressure to take action in response to human rights violations and Zimbabwe’s failure to follow the rule of law.
Weak response
So far the response of African leaders has been weak, but there are indications that increasing pressure is being put on Mugabe. The Zimbabwean, a weekly newspaper published in the U.K., by a distinguished and greatly experienced Zi
mbabwean journalist, and circulating widely within Zimbabwe, has just reported that President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa is working behind the scenes to bring about a transitional government of national unity, drawing in Mugabe’s party and the opposition, Movement for Democratic Change. The paper quotes highly-placed sources as saying that “Mbeki hopes to accomplish the very difficult mission of convincing President Robert Mugabe to step down in exchange for a guarantee of indemnity from prosecution for alleged crimes against humanity”.
Realistically, there are obvious limits to what any outsider can achieve. Recognition of that underlay the discussion last week at an unofficial, but widely representative, conference in London which examined what role the Commonwealth might play in encouraging a solution. The fact that the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting is to take place in Uganda later this year is a reminder that exploring the possibility of a Commonwealth role makes sense. The experience of Commonwealth pressure in helping to bring about the end of the apartheid regime in South Africa is an indication of what might be achieved.
Ways to help
An important element of the Commonwealth’s involvement with apartheid South Africa was the role of the so-called “eminent persons group”, which played a major part in bringing about change by persuasion rather than confrontation. At last week’s conference, no one was under any illusion that setting up constructive discussion with Mugabe would be easy. There was, however, a widespread feeling that preparations can, and should, be made for positive action when the political situation in Zimbabwe changes. An eminent persons group could again be a useful vehicle.
There will be a huge need for help — through the provision of training and advice in the building of democratic institutions, the re-building of the economy, the re-establishment of a proper legal system, the strengthening of civil society, to name but some. There will certainly be a need to achieve effective reform of land ownership, which has been a major issue in Zimbabwe, and Southern Rhodesia, as it previously was, since the 1920s.
In any approach to the Zimbabwe problem there would be one great advantage in a Commonwealth initiative, namely, the fact that it could be distanced from both the “colonial” problem implicit in any British action, and the “African” problem which in effect limits what Zimbabwe’s immediate neighbours can do.
Role for India
In this connection, India could be a key player. India’s Election Commission, for example, could be a useful model for a new democratic system in Zimbabwe, and India’s strong and vibrant media might be a focus for training the new cohort of journalists who will certainly be needed as the country moves out of crisis to reconstruction.
There was no false optimism in last week’s London discussions, but a definite feeling that the Commonwealth could play a useful part in that move.
Bill Kirkman is an Emeritus Fellow of Wolfson College Cambridge, UK. Email him at: bill.kirkman@gmail.com
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