Land use and food security
KARAN MANVEER SINGH
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Given the path we are following, the future will see us importing food on a regular basis
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HOW WE use our land is one of the most crucial questions of our time. Traditionally man has looked to land to provide him food — one of the purest and deepest bonds that man has had with his environment.
But today man is choosing to "use" land in new and complex ways. We need to be very careful about what we do with our land because how we use it will be a major factor in determining our future.
Construction boom
Mumbaikars may claim to live in pigeonholes and heaven knows they have a point, but for urban centres caught up in the thick of the IT boom, it is quite another story. Gated colonies and farmhouses are mushrooming from Bhiwadi to Bannerghatta. The Indian obsession of owning a "plot" — never mind where or how — is sending developers scrambling to build the next "paradise on earth."
But all of this comes at a cost. Vast tracts of arable land are being plastered with concrete. The environmental costs of this are many but the most significant among them is the fact that agricultural land — land that used to produce food — now produces nothing.
According to an estimate, about half of Punjab will be urbanised by 2026. The corresponding figures for Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra are 75 per cent and 61 per cent. Given that our population is still growing, we have a combination of increasing demand and shrinking supply.
The SEZ story
Another aspect to the problem is the intrusion of corporate India into the countryside. Special economic zones, highway malls, industrial units and other corporate initiatives into rural India are further hastening the process of land encroachment. With most, if not all, of the encroachment taking place on agricultural land, we urgently need to study how it will impact our foodgrain production.
As a case study, let us look at the 10,000 ha SEZ coming up in Jhajjar (Haryana). The land taken up by the SEZ at present produces enough to feed 2.4 lakh people — in perpetuity. A hundred such SEZs will impact 2.4 crore people or over 2 per cent of the population. However the real impact will be more widespread because here we are assuming that the given 2.4 crore people will be completely starved. In reality a much larger section of the populace will actually be partially starved. This number could be 3 or 4 times the given estimate going up to 8-10 per cent of the population.
India has been living with endemic famine for decades. Foodgrain availability per person in India is 200 kg as against the world average of 309 kg. Were the entire population to consume "normal" amounts of food, our requirement as a country will shoot up to 310 million tonnes as against current production levels of 200 million tonnes — a shortfall of a 110 million tonnes. The enormity of the task is put into perspective when one sees that the "green revolution" managed to increase production by 100 million tonnes over a period of 25 years. With sown area not expected to increase significantly the above target seems well nigh impossible. And the SEZ phenomenon may just tip us over from a state of endemic to full blown famine.
Given the path we as a nation are following, the future will see us importing food on a regular basis. It could be argued that the very SEZs that are gobbling up land will also provide us the financial wherewithal to import food. But this scenario leaves us at the mercy of at least two factors — transportation costs and the negotiating power of the food surplus countries.
Transportation is a concern with continuously increasing oil prices. But even more worrying is the fact that we are likely to be squeezed for every penny's worth at the negotiating table. And view this in the light of the fact that the top exporter of wheat in the world is the U.S. and the picture gets clearer. Put simply, we will be at their mercy (American military bases on Indian soil?) Not a pretty picture.
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