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Myanmar: a foreign policy challenge for India
SANJAY PULIPAKA
The recent demonstrations in Myanmar have raised some important questions for India’s foreign policy. How do we reconcile short-term national interests with long-term ones? How do we fuse the cherished ideals of our republic — democracy and freedom — with the needs of realpolitik?
Before we explore the foreign policy options for India with respect to Myanmar, let us examine our national interests and determine the ways to protect and promote them.
First, any political transition in Myanmar must maintain territorial integrity and sovereignty of Myanmar. Given the multi-ethnic nature of its society, the political transition must not lead to fragmentation resulting in the emergence of a weak state. Such fragmentation would have deleterious impact on our national security and northeast India will absorb much of the stress generated there.
Secondly, in the immediate future, we need continued cooperation with Myanmar to combat militancy in the northeast. A regime hostile to India in Myanmar will promote secessionist elements in the northeast.
Thirdly, greater economic integration with the South East Asian countries is necessary for faster development of northeastern India. Trade routes from the northeast to South East Asia go through Myanmar, which mandates positive engagement with it.
Finally, antagonising the current regime in Myanmar might push it further into Chinese orbit. This would give greater leverage to China in its interaction with India, and conversely constrain the room for strategic manoeuvres available to India.
The above are only short and medium term interests, and they seem to be at loggerheads with our long-term interests. Establishment of a regime that meets the aspirations of the people of Myanmar, in the long run, is the only way to ensure stability in Myanmar and in the region.
The current regime must realise it cannot tie down its people, while neighbours such as China, India and ASEAN are making rapid economic progress. It must come up with a road-map for political transition. Such a road-map will gain momentum only if China, India and ASEAN push for it, by recognising that their interests are best served if they see Myanmar as a zone-of-agreement, not as ‘space for strategic contest.’
But why should these regional powers see Myanmar as a zone-of-agreement? Because, intervention by neighbouring powers to gain strategic advantage without reference to the needs and aspirations of the local people in the long run will result in impairment of their respective national interests.
The happenings in Somalia and Afghanistan bear testimony to this fact.
While India along with other regional powers can push for a road-map for political transition in Myanmar, it would be imprudent for them to determine the contents of it. It is for the people of Myanmar to determine the nature of political order that they wish to have.
Often policy makers, academicians and others refer to India as an emerging global power, because of its rapid economic growth and unwavering commitment to democracy. Being a global power entails sharing the burden in terms of promoting international peace and prosperity.
Myanmar will be one of the test cases to determine if India will proactively engage and creatively facilitate resolution of conflicts in its neighbourhood.
(The writer was a 2005-2007 Fulbright Conflict Resolution Fellow and can be reached at pulipaka.sanjay@emu.edu
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