Indian, Sri Lankan officials meet

By Atul Aneja

NEW DELHI, MAY 20. Senior Indian and Sri Lankan military officials had a key two-day brainstorming exercise in Bangalore even as Sri Lanka's Deputy Foreign Minister, Mr. Lakshman Kiriella, was in Karnataka's capital today.

According to sources, the Sri Lankans sought the meeting as they were finding it difficult to interpret the surveillance data on LTTE strongholds, such as radar images which India was passing on to them. The meeting began in the backdrop of the visit of the Sri Lankan Chief of defence staff, General Rohan De'Silva Daluvatte, who was also in Bangalore on Thursday.

In the wake of the LTTE's relentless onslaught on Jaffna, both sides also discussed the possible road map towards negotiations. India was considering various options after the fall of Jaffna. The assessment was that India, at some point of time, would have to intervene to steer the course of violence in the Jaffna peninsula towards negotiations. The key lies in determining the right moment for nudging both parties for talks.

The moment for negotiations might arrive when the LTTE clearly gained an upper hand over Jaffna town, symbolised, for instance, in the takeover of the strategically-located Jaffna university. With the centrally-located university as the base, the Tigers could establish control over the town by combining popular support with terror. Much would depend on how the Tigers project their de facto dominance over town.

Initiating talks would be easier in case the Tigers decided against proclaiming that Jaffna had ``fallen''. A formal declaration of Sri Lankan defeat would mean a total loss of face which would drive the Sri Lankans away from the negotiating table.

While the LTTE is aware of India's preference for the use of calibrated force, it is not certain whether the Tigers would exercise restraint. The Tigers are aware that the Indian leverage over them is restricted as New Delhi, on account of present political compulsions and the bitter history of the IPKF operations, no longer has the option of using force against them.

As of now, the LTTE is on a military high. Sources pointed out that the LTTE have captured seven 122mm. field artillery guns from the forces. Besides, it has taken over an artillery ammunition dump close to Elephant Pass. Nevertheless, its supplies of ammunition are not endless. With the onset of monsoon, the LTTE will find it difficult to operate the small ships which are used for ferrying its arms and ammunition. This will have a negative impact on its preparedness in the long run.

The Indian Navy is gearing itself up for evacuation from the Jaffna peninsula along a ``safe passage'' which the Tigers may earmark soon after their movement into the town. The first to leave are likely to be the leaders and cadres of the EPRLF, TELO, PLOTE and TULF , who have been targeted by the LTTE in the past.

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