Talks with Putin could still save Mori

By F.J. Khergamvala

TOKYO, MARCH 24. The Japanese Prime Minister, Mr. Yoshiro Mori, is tonight in Irkutsk, eastern Siberia on a mission that closely dovetails with a last ditch attempt to ensure his political survival. And well he might. Because, so the cliche goes, a week is a long time in politics.

No daily has yet announced the result of any tracking poll about Mr. Mori's chances, after he met the U.S. President, Mr. George W. Bush, last week in Washington DC. Little on that trip seems to have damaged Mr. Mori. On the contrary, the markets reacted well to some expression of joint concern about both leaders being aware of both economies going down. Japan and the U.S. jointly account for about 40 per cent of the world's gross domestic product.

On Sunday, Mr. Mori is to meet the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, on a mission that was certainly very high on the Japanese agenda, from the time of 1997, when Mr. Ryutaro Hashimoto was Prime Minister. The new twists to resolving a long- standing territorial dispute and how the public views the outcome of three hours talks on Sunday could provide the dividing line between Mr. Mori's short term and longer term survival.

A few points gain from the U.S., Russia visits could resuscitate a political life going into a coma. How the Irkutsk declaration on Sunday breathes life into the 1956 document will partially determine how it breathes life into Mr. Mori's career.

The Japan-Russia dispute involves Japan's claims to what it calls the Northern Territories, Etorofu, Kunashiri and Shikotan islands and the Habomai group of islets, that were seized by Soviet troops at the end of World War II. Both leaders are to issue an Irkutsk Declaration, on top of others, as a basis for negotiations, either for a peace treaty, or a peace treaty based on resolution of the territorial dispute.

The new twist is the Russian shift to allow in the Irkutsk Declaration, the inclusion of the 1956 joint declaration to be mentioned as one of the bases for a solution. That 1956 document said the Soviet Union would return two of the four islands - Shikotan and the Habomais - after a peace treaty is signed. The same declaration restored diplomatic ties between the two countries. The then Soviet Union's foreign minister, Mr Andrei Gromyko, rescinded a clause on the return of Shikotan Island and the Habomai islets in 1960, after Japan and the U.S. signed a security treaty.

Russia and Japan interpret the 1956 declaration differently. In September 2000, towards the end of his Tokyo visit, Mr. Putin refused to give written sanctity to the 1956 paper in any future declaration. Thus, its expected inclusion itself is a gain for Mr. Mori. Japan interprets the inclusion as a Russian intent to return the two specified islands, allowing negotiations to move on to the other two islands.

But many opponents of this approach, including Mr. Mori's rivals, like Mr. Hashimoto, the architect of the 1997 Krasnoyarsk document with Mr. Boris Yeltsin might infer that Russia wants to put an end to the dispute by returning only the specified islands. Another thorn is that Russia wants to de-link the resolution of the territorial dispute with a peace treaty. But, the conservatives in Japan, say no resolution, no peace treaty.

The side cast to the Russia trip is a necessary backdrop. Accompanying Mr. Mori is Mr. Muneo Suzuki, former deputy chief cabinet secretary, and now considered a not too clean money bags of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's largest Hashimoto faction. The faction is the most vocal among those hinting a bit too loudly about Mr. Mori quitting. Also, in an interesting remark to reporters accompanying him to Irkutsk on Saturday afternoon, just as a `bad luck' quake hit parts of southern Japan, Mr. Mori asked Mr. Junichiro Koizumi to examine the full implications of his stated willingness to step into Mr. Mori's shoes. Mr. Koizumi is Mr. Mori's factional deputy.

Mr. Mori never tells. He signals. This signal is that he may be down but he isn't out. If, as the LDP goes for a party election much before the scheduled one in September, as asked for by its leader, he too might well be in the fray. The Russia trip will be a factor.

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Section  : International
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