Mega change

The same forces that removed Abdurrahman Wahid as Indonesia's President could pose a threat to the new leader as well... But for now, says AMIT BARUAH, there is considerable goodwill for Megawati Sukarnoputri.

IN THE end, it was a painful end to an erratic presidency. Mr. Abdurrahman Wahid finally acquiesced and departed from the Presidential palace in Jakarta on Thursday, three days after the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) voted to impeach him. As Ms. Megawati Sukarnoputri took power on Monday in front of a cheering members of the upper House of Parliament, Indonesia's neighbourhood and the rest of the world quietly cheered the absence of violence and trouble.

The most important part of the remove Wahid and install `Mega' (as she is popularly known) campaign lay in the fact that no doomsday scenarios materialised. The country did not, as Mr. Wahid had predicted, break up into pieces and his fanatical followers in the Nadhlatul Ulama kept their peace. The stability of the world's largest Islamic democracy and South East Asia's most important nation had concerned everyone - neighbours and distant nations alike.

The removal of Mr. Wahid from power was a process, not an event. Everybody knew it was coming, but the real question was: will it be peaceful or not? In the end, it was quiet, almost anti- climactic.

A moderate Islamic scholar, Mr. Wahid, who is near-blind, suffered from not just physical disabilities from the time he took power in October 1999. Mislead by many around him, he soon found himself taking erratic, knee-jerk decisions, which alienated all but his most die-hard supporters. His inability to make his Cabinet function as a team, delegate authority and enforce the rule of law in a post-autocratic Indonesia finally cost him his job. Numerous Cabinet reshuffles only seemed to add to his problems.

Corruption charges, too, were levelled against him, but the fact remains that Mr. Wahid was not ousted on these charges - it was because his allies-turned-opponents could no longer deal with him.

If the former President had 60 members of Parliament backing him, Ms. Megawati has 160. But she is still dependent on allies such as the MPR Speaker, Mr. Amien Rais, and the Islamic factions, as well as the House of Representatives Speaker, Mr. Akbar Tandjung. The attitude of Mr. Wahid's party and the Nadlatul Ulama remains to be seen. Mega and Gus Dur (the former President's nickname) were firm friends before their political schism - there is no reason why this friendship cannot resume.

The election as Vice-President of Mr. Hamzah Haz, leader of the Islamic United Development Party, after three rounds of voting spread over Wednesday and Thursday, saw the defeat of the Golkar leader, Mr. Akbar Tandjung. A vast majority of Indonesians, in all probability, did not want the return of a Golkar face to the executive.

The power of the Suharto-backed Golkar is not just in Parliament, and their ability to garner votes, but everywhere in the state structure. Every move (albeit erratic) made by Mr. Wahid was stymied by a ``mysterious force''.

While the voting out of Gus Dur may have strengthened democracy, Ms. Megawati will face many challenges. If Indonesia is to move towards a more participatory democracy, the ghosts from the past will have to be exorcised. Many Indonesians believe that even the Judiciary, which has aborted all efforts to prosecute Gen. Suharto, is packed with men who owe allegiance to the former dictator.

After the elections in 1999, Mr. Hamzah Haz and like-minded Muslim-oriented leaders opposed Ms. Megawati's becoming President, arguing that Islam did not allow for a woman to become Head of state. Instead, they preferred Mr. Wahid. That such a view was political became clear when Mr. Hamzah later dropped his opposition to Ms. Megawati becoming President. There is little doubt that Gus Dur's election was a result of political jockeying at the time.

As Ms. Megawati gives shape to her Cabinet, many allies will demand their `share' - the absence of a clear Parliamentary majority does make her `dependent'. The same forces that removed Mr. Wahid can pose a threat to the new leader as well. It remains to be seen whether the new President can display leadership qualities and neutralise political threats in the future before they turn serious.

At the moment, the Mega-Hamzah duo is being touted as a successful ``nationalist-Islamic'' alliance. Whether the alliance endures as Indonesia continues to go through challenging times, will be closely watched.

For Ms. Megawati, there is considerable goodwill. A popular leader, who challenged dictatorship, she has been warmly welcomed to the country's top job. Even the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), normally circumspect about commenting on internal developments of member-nations, has been warm in welcoming Ms. Megawati's election. Foreign Ministers of ASEAN meeting in Hanoi praised the ``orderly and peaceful'' transition.

Mr. Wahid's funny ways demonstrated the need for a President who would govern Indonesia with dignity. His frequent travels abroad were the butt of many jokes. A sacked police chief refused to obey his `boss' - the President. The country, it seemed, was drifting along, not being governed. Indonesia certainly needs a firm hand, but this multi-ethnic, multi- religious nation also needs understanding and more democracy. Ms. Megawati will also have to set the economy on course and create better living conditions for the mass of Indonesians.

Over to Mega.

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