Disillusionment may erode IT sector gains - Gartner

By Sandeep Dikshit

NEW DELHI, JULY 28. In a scenario where most companies are trying to grapple with the actual value of IT following the dotcom meltdown, the world's premier technology advisory company, Gartner Inc., has cautioned Indian entrepreneurs from falling prey to disillusionment about the prospects of the IT sector. ``Disillusionment and not a recession will be the biggest threat to Asia's business in the coming quarter,'' point out Gartner analysts who are apprehensive that more than the prevailing U.S. slowdown, it will be perceptions about the industry that may erode India's gains in the IT arena.

They agree that the dotcom meltdown has raised a tremendous amount of scepticism in business managers minds about the value of IT and its ability to deliver. But, ``management disillusionment is even more dangerous than dotcom hype. Sure the current e-marketplace turmoil and notable e-business failures have contributed to the confusion and state of flux, but the key is to look at this period as a weeding out of the rot and not as the death of e-business.

Survival in a turbulent market will continue to necessitate staying comparative and taking calculated risks,'' counsels the Gartner Research Director for Asia Pacific, Mr. John Roberts.

Taking the example of e-marketplaces which reached a peak in 2000, Mr. Bruce McCabe, another Gartner Director, says, ``There were hundreds of Asia Pacific ventures that were launched in the first six months of the year but merely one year later market forces indicated an exaggerated mismatch between demand-supply. The hype ebbed away, the flaws were exposed and many marketplaces simply collapsed, unable to draw suppliers and generate the required transaction volumes. Half of Asia Pacific e-marketplaces will have failed by the end of 2001.''

According to Gartner analysts, the key for today's business is the opportunity to benefit from lessons learned and aggregated across enterprises undertaking similar technology deployments.

In a forthcoming summit in India which will focus on the prevailing ``U.S. slowdown inspired'' local market sentiment, they will seek to address key issues such as discovering how to profit from e-procurement and e-marketplace, learning how to avoid the trough of disillusionment and understanding how to sort the e-business hype from reality.

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Section  : Business
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