Russia gains concessions on Chechnya

By C. Raja Mohan

NEW DELHI, SEPT. 27. Perhaps it is only the Western tone that has changed. But the latest American and European pronouncements on Chechnya make it clear that Russia may have extracted a concession from the West in its war against separatism in the rebellious province.

The softening Western tone on Chechnya comes barely a day after the Russian President, Mr. Vladimir Putin, announced substantive support to American military operations against Afghanistan. In return, the U.S., until recently very critical of Russian policy in Chechnya, called on the rebels to cut links with ``international terrorists and their international organisations''.

The Germans went a step further. During Mr. Putin's

recent visit to Berlin, the German Chancellor, Mr. Gerhard Schroeder, stated that ``there will be and must be a more differentiated evaluation'' of the situation in Chechnya.

Mr. Putin has also used the new international context to announce a 72-hour deadline to Chechen rebels to make contact with Russian officials to discuss laying down arms and negotiating a political settlement. Even as he sought Western concessions on Chechnya, Mr. Putin moved swiftly to end the Russian opposition to talks with the rebels.

Russia has been waging an extended war against extremists in the southern mountainous province of Chechnya. It says there are strong connections between the rebels and the Islamic extremists based in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

As Mr. Putin told the German Bundestag this week, the extremists have plans to set up an Islamic Caliphate in the Russian territory between the Caspian and Black Seas.

Overcoming considerable skepticism at home about letting the U.S. military forces enter Russia's Central Asian backyard, Mr. Putin seized the moment on September 11 to explore the prospects for a grand bargain with the U.S.

The Russian offer of its air space for Western humanitarian missions into Afghanistan, letting American use of military facilities in the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, and expansive sharing of intelligence are of great value to the U.S.

Besides Western ``understanding'' of its policies in Chechnya, Russia may want backing for its bid to join the World Trade Organisation and a reconsideration of Western policy on the expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation to Russian borders.

More fundamentally, Mr. Putin has argued in Berlin that the present structures of international security are outdated and must be revamped to give Russia its rightful role in the management of the international system. Deep suspicions on both sides may complicate a potentially historic reconciliation between Russia and the West. But the process appears to have gained momentum from the present crisis.

As the world admires the skill with which Mr. Putin moved since September 11, it would be tempting to draw parallels between Russian success in gaining some concessions from the U.S. on Chechnya and the apparent Indian inability to do so on Jammu and Kashmir.

But the two situations are not comparable. India does not have the same weight as Russia in the current American plans to defeat the Taliban regime. Lack of physical access has always put a limit on what India can do in Afghanistan. And access to Afghanistan is what makes Pakistan so central to the geopolitics of South West Asia.

Even more important, Russia's fight is with bands of Chechen rebels with connections to international terrorism. It has no neighbouring country fomenting extremism across the borders.

India, in contrast, has to deal with cross-border terrorism from Pakistan which has nurtured a long-standing dispute with India over Jammu and Kashmir. And as it turns out Pakistan's support has become critical in the current American war against terrorism, at least in the first phase.

Instead of hoping for immediate gains from the external front, India could well emulate Mr. Putin in finding ways to move the pieces within Jammu and Kashmir.

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