No hope of rains making up for deficiency
New Delhi (PTI): Though parts of northern and eastern India received rainfall this past week but weather scientists have given up hope that improvement in monsoon activity could wipe out deficit for this season.
"The rainfall activity slightly increased with scattered to fairly widespread rainfall over east India during second half and over central India and adjoining northern plains towards end of the week," an IMD official said.
At 27.4 mm, the country received 56 per cent less rain between August six and 12 than normal with peninsular India getting 68 per cent deficient rainfall. Rains played truant in central and northwest India where deficiency was 65 per cent.
The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole this season has been 29 per cent below the Long Period Average (LPA). The LPA, at 89 cm, is the average rainfall the country received over a 50 year period beginning 1940.
The India Meteorological Department had downgraded its monsoon prediction to 87 per cent of LPA last week from 93 per cent it had forecast in mid-June. In April, IMD had said that the country would receive 96 per cent of LPA this season.
Last week's exercise was a the second downward revision by the IMD with a model error of four per cent.
"It is unlikely to bridge the entire gap in deficiency this season," IMD Director General Ajit Tyagi said.
Almost 300 districts out of the over 600 have received deficient rainfall this season while nearly another quarter have got scanty rains.
According to IMD definitions, rainfall is said to be deficient if the actual rainfall is between 80 per cent and 41 per cent of the LPA.
Rainfall is said to be scanty, if the actual rainfall is 40 per cent of the LPA or less.
Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, the cumulative rainfall this season was deficient in 25 and scanty in two. Nine sub-divisions received excess to normal rains.
Parallels are being drawn to the 2002 monsoon season which had seen the country receiving 81 per cent rains of the LPA. It was the first all-India drought year after a continuous spell of good monsoons.
At the end of the 2002 season, 21 out of the 36 sub-divisions covering 56 per cent of the country's land had received deficient or scanty rains.