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Combine intuition with intellect - outwit failure
Intuition, gut feel, hunch or sixth sense-whatever the name, we are all familiar with the inner voice that urges us to do some thing or refrain from doing something. There are times we feel glad we listened to our sixth sense and also times we regret not having gone by our gut. We come across legends about entrepreneurs who dared to take the less trodden path thanks solely to their intuition and became hugely succ
essful.
What is this intuition? Is it a super logic? “The only real valuable thing is intuition,” according to the renowned scientist Albert Einstein. But how valuable is it in high-stake business decisions? The expert opinion is divided on the subject.
Scholars of rational thought often say that one should not rely on intuition while taking high stakes decisions. According to them intuition is profoundly affected by cognitive biases.
The business environment is so overwhelmingly complex and shrouded by such magnitudes of uncertainty that in spite of analysing loads of data, one cannot be certain of the outcome. Therefore the common practice is to take a decision based on the business instincts developed over the years. Experts caution us against cognitive biases such as anchoring bias, vivid data bias and overconfidence strongly influencing our business instincts. We should sniff anchoring bias in the air when our business instinct recommends going ahead with a new venture based on the success of previous ventures.
The parameters would have changed since then and we could be running a high risk if we proceed with the decision. Also our tendency to give undue importance to the most recent events while taking decisions could land us in trouble. Vivid data bias is said to rule our instincts in such situations and we may overlook some other vital parameters. We cannot completely disentangle ourselves from cognitive biases because we unconsciously work from previous experiences and give certain information more credence than due.
The best we can do is to mitigate its effect on the decision. A more deliberate and logical process should be followed wherein you step back from the situation and assess it like an outsider. Thus the rational school of thought says scientific decision tools are more reliable than intuition to take a prudent decision. However there are other researchers who feel intuition cannot be separated from the decision making process. Well-known psychologists point out that intuition is not the opposite of rationality and it is no simple guess either.
It is a sophisticated process of reasoning and ability to judge accurately that an expert develops over years of experience and learning. Intuition is part of every decision making process. This is because only what is known can be measured; predictions of the unknown require intuitive skills on part of the forecaster to think about contingencies and events that could have a bearing on the future.Intuition inspires creativity, which is fundamental to business success. Recent advances in cognitive science suggest that there is nothing mystical or paranormal about intuition. It evolves from long experience and learning and not necessarily biased. Intuition and rational thinking occur simultaneously in our brain while making decisions.
Using elements of instinct in tandem with conventional resources might be more effective. There is no business with out risk and therefore the best option would be to combine your intuition with intellect to outwit failure resulting from biases of every kind!
N. PURNIMA SRIKRISHNA
faqs@cnkonline.com
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